After a 35% drop in the share price on Monday on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Frostpunk 2’s makers saw shares falling a further 8.5% in trading by midday on Tuesday.
Since September 16, the company’s share price has plunged by over 50% from 635 złotys to 307 złotys.
Despite 11 bit studios announcing on Tuesday that it had sold 350,000 copies in three days, its popularity on streaming site Steam, which is often a good gauge of future sales of any new game, was a third lower than financial analysts had envisaged.
And while before the launch at the end of last week many analysts were forecasting sales of 1.8 million copies this year, they are now suggesting the number could be as low as 1.2 million.
Frostpunk 2, which depicts post-apocalyptic survival in a world covered in ice, aims to grow on the success of the first version, which has sold 6 million copies over the past six years.
However, investors’ interest is melting away despite the game studio’s announcement on Monday that it had broken even on its new title, with estimated net sales of nearly $8 million.
“We are super happy to announce that we’ve already exceeded 350 000 copies of Frostpunk 2 sold!” 11 bit studios said.
“What’s more, the total estimated sales revenue has already covered the costs we spent on producing and marketing the game.”
The news got positive feedback from Ali Jones, Editor of the Games Radar gamers’ site.
“Frostpunk 2 is in pure profit territory,” said the reviewer. But he advised against euphoria, as the company has some hefty upcoming marketing expenses for its next game launches.
The problem for investors is that although Frostpunk 2 got positive critiques—an average of 7 out of 10 from reviewers on streaming site Steam—online usage of the game on that site was peaking at 35,000 users, as opposed to the 45–55,000 that had been forecast.
Many brokers have downgraded their assessment of the company from “accumulate” to “sell.”
Games and IT analyst Piotr Bogusz at Erste Bank, one of those who downgraded the company, wrote that the game launch “had failed to live up to the expectations of our investors.”
Nevertheless, the analyst did see positives. “In our opinion, the game has the potential to generate sales in the long run, like in the case of other 11 bit games."
The developer has other titles to launch this year. The company said on Monday that the date of the premiere of its much-anticipated “The Alters” would be announced any day.
Meanwhile, the share dip has caused contagion on the Warsaw market, with most of the Polish developers in the WIG Games index showing up in red over the past two days.
