Poland’s economy is expected to grow by 3.0% this year, rebounding sharply from near stagnation in 2023, when growth was just 0.1%.
The European Commission said: “Private consumption is set to be the main growth driver, supported by rapidly rising wages, increased government spending on support to families, improved consumer sentiment and receding inflationary pressures.”
In 2025, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.6%, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU.
This will be driven by reconstruction efforts after severe flooding in September and strong domestic demand. By 2026, Poland's growth is expected to slow to 3.1% due to weaker consumption and investment, according to the Commission.
Employment is projected to decrease by 0.3% in 2024, with modest gains thereafter as the workforce ages and shrinks. Rising employment among Ukrainian refugees is expected to offset these trends partially.
EU economic trends
The broader EU economy, by contrast, is forecast to grow at a slower pace. Real GDP is projected to expand by 0.9% in 2024 and accelerate to 1.5% in 2025. Growth is expected to reach 1.8% in 2026, driven by stronger consumer demand and a rebound in investment.
In the euro area, growth is forecast at 0.8% in 2024, increasing to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
Ireland and Malta are the only EU countries expected to outpace Poland's growth in 2025, with Ireland rebounding from a deep slump caused by instability in multinational sectors. Malta, meanwhile, continues its steady momentum, supported by strong domestic demand, growing tourism, robust employment and recovering wages.
Despite the expected slowdown in employment growth from 0.8% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2026, the EU labor market remained strong in 2024. Unemployment reached a historic low of 5.9% in October and is projected to stabilize at 6.1% in 2024, gradually declining to 5.9% by 2026.
The EU’s Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, said: “The European economy is slowly recovering. As inflation continues to ease and private consumption and investment growth pick up, with unemployment at record lows, growth is set to gradually accelerate over the next two years.”
Inflation and fiscal challenges
Inflation in Poland, which eased to around 3% in early 2024, is expected to rise temporarily to 4.7% in 2025 due to the unfreezing of energy prices and hikes in excise duties.
Inflation “is forecast to decline to 3.0% in 2026 despite elevated services and food prices growth.”
In the EU, inflation is projected to fall sharply, from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, before easing further to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
Poland’s fiscal position remains challenging, with the general government deficit expected to reach 5.8% of GDP in 2024 due to increased defense spending, public sector wage hikes and new family benefits. Gradual fiscal consolidation is forecast to reduce the deficit to 5.6% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026.
