The flash estimate for July reported by the central statistics office Poland Statistics on Wednesday showed that the growth trends of the start of 2024 have continued.
Analysts polled earlier in the month by the national press agency PAP had expected growth of 3.0%, as building activity and exports had not recovered from a downturn.
“One of the surprises could be a better than expected condition of the services sector,” said the ING team in a note to customers. “We estimate that economic growth was due to increasing consumption, both private and public expenditure.”
On the downside, the bank’s analysts pointed to investment falling and foreign companies taking profits on their activities in Poland abroad rather than putting funds into growing business in the country.
ING was referring to yesterday’s balance of payments data published by Poland’s central bank, which showed 10.9 capital movements abroad.
Economists put the higher consumer spending down to wage increases of 11% compared to the same time last year.
In terms of government spending, receipt of the long-awaited €6.3 billion first tranche of European recovery funds, which was spent on government services like free nursery places, may have boosted consumption as a whole.
