The research, published by the Global Property Guide in November, looked at the property markets found in Warsaw, Gdańsk, Krakow, Gdynia, Łódż, Poznań and Wrocław.
Adjusted for inflation, the increase still amounted to a substantial 14.7%, pushing the average cost per square meter (sq. m) to 12,709 złotys (€2,900). This sharp rise represents the largest annual increase since the fourth quarter of 2007 and contrasts to the more moderate 2.95% year-on-year growth seen in Q2 2023.
On a quarterly basis, prices rose by 3.8% (2.3% inflation-adjusted), and real estate consultancy JLL reported that developers’ selling prices are converging with listing prices, driven by wealthier buyers willing to accept increased costs.
Among the major cities, Krakow recorded the most significant year-on-year growth, with prices soaring by 30.4%, reaching €3,329 per sq. m in Q2 2024. Other cities showed notable increases, with Warsaw seeing an annual price rise of 14.5%—its highest rate since Q1 2008.
The capital remains Poland’s most expensive market, with flats averaging €3,451 per sq. m.
Wrocław saw marked increases in housing prices from the previous year to 21.4%, Łódź 19.4%, Poznań 17.6%, Gdynia 15.1% and Gdańsk 10.8%. Łódź remains the most affordable, with an average price of €1,735 per sq. m, while prices in Gdynia and Poznań also remain below the national urban average.
The housing market has also seen prolonged price increases, making today’s prices significantly higher than at the previous market peak in 2008. In the first half of 2024, average prices for existing flats in the seven largest cities were over 84% higher than their 2008 levels. Krakow and Wrocław have recorded the most notable long-term growth, with prices climbing by 123.4% and 111.7%, respectively, since 2008. Warsaw, while still the most expensive, saw a comparatively smaller increase of 67.2%.
Decrease in supply and demand
Despite rising prices, recent data suggests a possible cooling in demand, according to the report. In Q3 2024, sales of flats in Poland’s six largest markets dropped by 6.9% from the previous quarter to 9,200 units, based on JLL figures.
Krakow was the only major city to show a slight increase in transactions, while Warsaw saw no change, and other cities, including Wrocław and the Tri-City area (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot), experienced declines. Poznań and Łódź faced the largest decreases in sales, with quarterly declines ranging between 22% and 25%.
Supply is also tightening. In the third quarter of 2024, only 12,600 new units were introduced to the market in the six major cities with significant reductions from the previous quarter, especially in Łódź, Poznań and the coastal Tri-City (Gdańsk, Sopot and Gdynia), which saw supply shrink by up to 39%.
Poland’s current housing challenges are partly structural, stemming from administrative constraints, a limited number of zoning plans, which cover less than 30% of the country’s area, and low-quality housing stocks compared to Western Europe, according to Ernst & Young.
Poland’s housing stock includes about 15.8 million units, 60% of which were built before 1989, primarily during the communist era using prefabricated materials, leading to quality issues. Modern apartments built from 2000 onward constitute less than 20% of the total and are mainly located in Warsaw, Krakow, Poznań, Wrocław, the Tri-City and Łódź.
