“We will see a rise in inflation in October. In November inflation will fall, and at the end of the year it will probably amount to 4.5%," said Jakub Rybacki from the Polish Economic Institute, a government think tank, commenting on the latest data from Statistics Poland.
Poland’s annual inflation rose from 4.3% in August.
“The rise in prices in September is mainly related to energy bills – these were 11.4% higher than a year ago," added Rybacki, who expects food and fuel inflation to fall over the next couple of months.
Steep inflation may rear its head again in the first quarter of 2025, however. Rybacki said this will “depend on the government’s decision on energy prices.”
In July, electricity and gas bill subsidies introduced in January 2023 were partially removed. The remaining elements of state assistance for people hit by fuel poverty are scheduled to end in January, unless the government decides to prolong the program.
Meanwhile, a research note by Rafał Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank Śląski, points to another factor affecting inflation next year: taxes on cigarettes and vaping liquids are to rise by 25% from March 1.
Those price rises stem from Poland having to bring its duties in line with EU guidelines. Further increases of 20% and 15% will be imposed in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
“According to our forecasts, inflation will reach a peak at the close of the first and the beginning of the second quarter of 2025 at around 6%,” Benecki said.
