Vadim Krasnoselsky made the decision to impose a 30-day state of emergency due to the impending expiration of a Ukrainian contract for the delivery of Russian gas through its territory.
The transit contract expires at the end of the year, and Ukraine, which is looking to punish Russia for waging war on it, appears unwilling to renew it. This could spell serious problems for the tiny breakaway republic, which occupies a sliver of land on the east bank of the River Dniester and remains unrecognized by any state.
“Today, there is no 100% guarantee of both gas supply or lack [of gas supply]. However, we must prepare for any development,” the republic’s leader said at a meeting of its National Security Council.
The emergency will include measures on conserving gas and energy resources, and a ban on energy exports.
Since declaring independence from Moldova in 1991 after a brief war, Transnistria has become reliant on subsidized supplies of gas from a Russian state happy to keep the lights on in a strip of territory that has long been a thorn in the flesh of Moldova’s aspirations to join the EU.
With the Transnistria-Moldova situation regarded as a frozen conflict, Moscow has managed to keep peacekeeping troops in the breakaway republic, thus maintaining a foothold in the region that has helped stymie Moldovan plans for greater European integration.
Transnistria’s energy problems could well spill over into Moldova. The breakaway republic is home to the Cuciurgani-Moldavskaya GRES (MGRES) gas-fired power plant, which, according to the International Energy Authority, in 2020 supplied 77% of Moldova’s electricity needs.
Moldova has sought to diminish its reliance on Transnistrian energy in recent years by importing supplies from the EU but it still gets a lot of electricity from the breakaway region. So disruptions to Transnistria’s gas supplies could undermine its ability to provide electricity to Moldova, and this has led to Chișinău scrambling to secure alternative, and more expensive, energy supplies with mixed results.
Gas prices have already increased 27.5% in December, and earlier this month the Moldovan prime minister, Dorin Recean, sacked Victor Parlicov, the energy minister, for failing to “ensure the purchase of gas”.
Recean also said the government plans to impose a preventive state of emergency on December 16.
“A state of energy emergency is necessary to manage the risks of energy supply disruptions, at least partially, and to allow the government to impose certain actions, including restricting energy exports,” he said.
“We are facing a challenging winter season with many risks,” Recean continued, adding that Moldovans “must be prepared for any scenario, especially since the cold has been used as a weapon over the past three years.”
There are hopes that after Ukraine’s contract with Russia expires on December 31, the Kremlin will continue to honor a deal with Moldova, which lasts until October 2026, by rerouting gas deliveries through a pipeline in Turkey.
Without Russian gas, Moldova could plunge into an economic crisis, with gas and energy prices increasing 15 and four times, respectively, according to Sergiu Tofilat, an energy expert quoted by RBC-Ukraine.
“Chișinău [Moldova’s capital] would need to borrow around €300 million annually,” Tofilat added.
