Opinion polls have put the two candidates, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, the former president Donald Trump, neck-and-neck in a race that is expected to go down to the wire.
While there is little between Harris and Trump when it comes to the polls, they offer vastly differing stances on European security and the war in Ukraine.
Harris has thrown her weight behind
Ukraine, saying it will “prevail” in its conflict with Russia. She is expected to continue the Biden policy of providing Kyiv with substantial military aid, if elected, but refraining from granting Ukraine permission to use U.S.-supplied weapons for deep strikes on Russian territory.
In contrast, Trump has said on many occasions that
he will seek an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. In a video address to a Ukrainian NGO last month, he even said that he guarantees that “we would have peace before I even enter the White House” if he wins.
“It will be done as president elect because it’s time to get it settled—it's a horrible war,” he added.
Trump has preferred not to provide details on his peace plan, raising concerns in Kyiv and states on NATO’s eastern flank that it could entail Ukraine losing territory while also being emasculated as a sovereign state.
This could, some claim, embolden Putin to push for even more territory. Speaking last month, Harris said the Russian president “
could set his sights on Poland and the Baltic states” if he is allowed to win in Ukraine.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, has said that “if Ukraine loses, my country is next.”
According to more pessimistic scenarios, Central Europe faces the prospect of either a new Cold War or even a hot war.
What does Trump's win mean for NATO?
The possibility of a Trump victory could also raise question marks over NATO in its current form, which in turn could force a reshape of the European security landscape. With an America less materially and emotionally committed to NATO,
European states will have to channel more resources into their mutual defense to counter the Russian threat.
Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, suggested that this process must happen, no matter who gets into the White House.
“Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us. On condition Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over,” he wrote on the X platform earlier this month.
Whether
Europe, which has experienced no real strategic threat to its security since the end of the Cold War in 1989, is prepared to make the financial, political and psychological commitment to enhancing its defenses remains a moot point in many European capitals.
Defense spending has increased in many European countries as the continent ‘Trump-proofs’ itself, but few will match Poland’s, which is set to rise to 4.7% of GDP next year.
