Lieutenant-Colonel Jacek Goryszewski, the spokesperson for the Operational Command of the Armed Forces, said that the decision not to shoot down the missile was made by the commander of the Operational Command.
The missile was picked up on Polish radar during a large overnight aerial assault on Ukraine by Russia. It flew between 1,000 and 2,000 meters into Polish airspace near the eastern village of Oserdów.
As Goryszewski explained it was clear from the missile’s trajectory that it would not fly further into Poland. Therefore, shooting it down could have carried greater risk than leaving it alone.
“The rocket weighed two tonnes and had a combat payload of 400 kilograms,” he explained. “
If it had been shot down, the remnants of it would have fallen on our territory. The remains of the interceptor missile would have also crashed to earth.”
The Polish military’s reluctance to shoot down the missiles can be explained by a tragedy that occurred
on November 15, 2022, in Przewodów, less than 10 kilometers to the northwest of Oserdów. Two men were killed when a Russian- or Soviet-manufactured rocket dropped on a grain drying facility. As the Polish prosecutors established, the missile was fired by Ukrainian air defenses in order to intercept a Russian missile, but it missed its mark and fell inside Polish territory.
Another way to intercept the missile is to have it shot down by fighter jets. But in such a case, even if the pilot is given permission to shoot it down, they can refrain from doing so if they see a risk of the wreckage dropping on a hospital or school.
“Where such interception should be conducted is also an important factor in making the decision,” Goryszewski stressed.
He also said that Ukrainian air defenses have learned that most of the attacks come from the east or the north.
“This is why the Russian Federation deliberately maneuvers rockets in such a fashion, that they circle around and strike targets inside Ukraine from the West,” said Lt.-Col. Goryszewski.
Decisive action needed
According to Professor Stanisław Kozej, a retired brigadier general who served as the head of the National Security Bureau (BBN) from 2010 to 2015, such events pose a real threat to Poland.
“It is never known what such a rocket might do. Especially since they are often rockets of so-called dual purpose, which can carry a nuclear payload,” he emphasized in an interview with PAP.
For this reason, increased vigilance and monitoring of all rockets flying towards Polish territory are necessary, Koziej explained.
Koziej admitted that such incidents may recur on account of the war underway across the Polish border but stressed that such a situation may also be deliberate provocations, meant to test the strength of Polish air defenses and gather information about them as well as their Ukrainian counterparts they collaborate with.
“Furthermore, the Russians may want to use the airspace near the border, while also violating Polish airspace, to launch maneuvering missiles targeting Ukrainian targets from the west, where air defense is presumably weaker,” he assessed.
“In order to defeat Ukraine, Russia must destroy strategic objects not only on the front line but also in depth. The Lviv region bordering Poland is a strategic area of interest for Russia,” he pointed out.
“I believe that
Russian operations in this area are also deliberately and purposefully used for provocative, diversionary, and reconnaissance actions,” he added, stressing that such incidents cannot be treated as mere coincidence.
“We must actively counteract such incidents to eliminate the enemy’s intention for deliberate provocations and conscious use of our airspace to enhance the effectiveness of their attacks. We must send a clear signal that we do not accept this,” he stated.
According to Koziej, the situation requires “very decisive actions.”
“In my opinion,
the only remedy to protect Polish airspace and territory from such incidents is for NATO to establish a forward missile defense zone beyond the Polish border, over Ukrainian territory,” he assessed.
In his opinion, the exact extent of such a zone into Ukrainian airspace should be left to specialists to determine.
“We, as NATO, should state to Russia that if such an incident occurs again, we will activate such a missile defense system to shoot down all rockets heading towards our border before they cross it,” Gen. Koziej emphasized.
He added that Polish authorities should propose such a solution and persuade NATO allies to support it.
“
This is the only way to secure NATO territory from accidental or deliberate Russian actions,” Koziej assessed.
