The Eurosceptic, Russia-friendly FPO held a slim lead in opinion polls for months over Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (OVP) in a campaign dominated by immigration and worries about the economy.

Led by Herbert Kickl, the FPO was projected to secure 29.1% of the vote, ahead of the OVP on 26.2%, and the centre-left Social Democrats on 20.4%, a Foresight pollster for broadcaster ORF showed after polls closed.

A separate projection by pollster Arge Wahlen also had the FPO coming first, winning by around 4 percentage points, a bigger winning margin than final polling had indicated.

“What’s at stake is whether the FPO will appoint the chancellor or not,” Kathrin Stainer-Haemmerle, a political science professor at the Carinthia University of Applied Sciences.

“Should that happen, then I have to say the role of Austria in the European Union would be significantly different. Kickl has often said that [Hungarian Prime Minister] Viktor Orbán is a role model for him and he will stand by him.”

The winner will not have an absolute majority but will claim the right to lead a coalition.

The projections were met with cheers at an FPO event in Vienna, with party staff and activists jubilant.

Kickl’s victory may prove pyrrhic, as the 55-year-old is a polarizing figure under whom other party leaders have refused to serve.

He has given no indication so far he could step aside to ensure his party leads the government.

Far-right support on the rise in Europe

An FPO victory would make Austria the latest EU country to register surging far-right support after gains in countries including the Netherlands, France and Germany.