Israel's response to the attack, while initially chaotic, turned into a systematic bombardment coupled with a land invasion of the Gaza Strip, in which an estimated 41,000 Gazans have already been killed.
Over time, Israel expanded its operation to Southern Lebanon, where it systematically and ferociously hits Hezbollah cells and assets. Since both Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran's proxies, Tehran responded with a missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024. Now, Israel's response against Iran is only a matter of time, but it's unlikely to be symbolic and may include hitting nuclear and/or oil-producing facilities.
The wars in the region have always had major global implications. It suffices to mention the oil crisis in the early 1970s, which ended the era of post-war Western prosperity and led to severe oil shortages across the Western world, contributing to the fall of the American dollar-based monetary union known as the Bretton Woods system. The emergence of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in the late 1960s and its acts of terrorism contributed to the radicalization of extreme ideologies in Europe and the adoption of terrorism by the radical left in Western Europe.
Today, half a century later, the West is still vulnerable to the shock waves from the Middle East. The mere mention by President Biden that Israel might target Iranian refineries led to a 5% increase in the price of crude oil within a day of trading. Should Israel take this action, it is fair to predict much more severe price hikes. In 1973, the oil-producing Arab countries cut production and introduced an embargo on exports to the United States and other Western states that supported Israel.
Most of the Gulf Arab states are not excessively friendly with Iran; hence, for now, they are unlikely to take drastic measures comparable to 1973, as recently confirmed by Saudi Arabia. But there is no doubt that Arab public opinion is sympathetic to Iran, not to mention the Palestinians, and will therefore exert pressure on their rulers to punish Israel and its supporters.
There is also no doubt that the Middle Eastern wars have already deepened existing political divisions in the Western world and have been used to rally the most militant base. Recently, I toured Northern Ireland, where Middle Eastern allegiances are reflected and used by extremists on both sides. The Catholic districts of Derry/Londonderry, where the tragic events of Bloody Sunday took place in 1972, are full of Palestinian flags.
The iconic wall "You are now Entering Free Derry" features both Irish and Palestinian flags and the slogan "Resistance is not terrorism." At the same time, Loyalist shrines on the Shankill Road in Belfast wave Israeli flags. In the United States, the Trump campaign has adopted a full support for Israel policy, with Trump himself encouraging Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities and refineries. Calling for moderation and restraint, as President Biden does, may cost Kamala Harris the election, as this neither satisfies the pro-Israel hawks nor the pro-Palestinian Arab Americans and left-wingers, many of whom may stay home or vote for the Green Party candidate on November 5, 2024. In France and much of Western Europe, Israel's biggest supporters today are the far-right parties, which is most ironic given their antisemitic roots.
Not all is bad news for the West, however. As already stated here, Israel's wars are, for the time being, limited to Iran and its proxies. The Saudis and others are sitting on the sidelines and are unlikely to be upset with scenarios in which either Iran or Israel gets the beating. Thanks to its shale revolution, the United States is practically energy independent, and its imports of energy from the Middle East have shrunk in recent decades. Meanwhile, Europe has also been progressively switching to renewables, and as recently signaled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU will support the development of nuclear power generation.
The political implications are trickier. However, even under the scenario in which Trump wins in November, one can expect a lot of warmongering rhetoric coming out of the White House but not much action. After all, Trump's promise to his base is to keep America self-focused while staying away from expensive wars.
Meanwhile, while populist politics is posing a challenge to European liberal democracies, there is little indication of an appetite for violent turn. European public opinion is deeply divided but well aware of the costs of violent confrontations. As one of the former members of the IRA said, "If one wants a normal life, one needs to talk to one’s adversaries."
