Three clear indications emerged from this conference, and none of it was good news for Ukraine. These can be summarized as a lack of chemistry between the leaders, no interest in Ukraine, and naively positive views on Putin.
As the two men stood next to each other, it was blatantly clear that there was zero chemistry between them. Trump was on his turf and took full advantage of it, barely allowing the Ukrainian president to speak. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy, who extended his stay on American soil especially to meet the former U.S. president, looked defiant and confident yet deeply uncomfortable.
Zelenskyy wanted to talk about ending the war and prevailing against the invading Russia; Trump wanted to talk about how bad the Democrats are.
As Trump took the floor after short remarks from Zelenskyy, he focused on what he called the "impeachment hoax of the Democrats," referring to the scandal that shook his administration in 2019 when it came out that he was pressuring President Zelenskyy to find 'dirt' on Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
As President Zelenskyy was apparently learning during these bizarre utterances, he had been on Trump's side, and that was the main reason he was even granted the honor of being received by the former president. So, ending the war, stopping Russia, and certainly Ukraine, meant nothing to Trump as he met the president of the embattled country. If anyone had any illusions until now, Trump made it clear to the entire world that he does not care one iota about Ukraine.
Then, there was Russia and Putin. Not for the first time, Trump was bragging about his "very good relations with President Putin," which, as he claimed, would allow him to end the war in no time if elected in November. It's worth recalling at this point what Trump's 'peace plan' would look like, as indeed outlined by his running mate, J.D. Vance, a few weeks back. Essentially, Ukraine would have to give up the territory that Russia occupies and would need to commit to never joining NATO. In short, the idea is to secure peace through Ukrainian capitulation.
As Trump was boasting about his "very good relations with President Putin," Zelenskyy interjected by saying, "I hope we have 'more' good relationships," to which Trump responded smilingly, "Oh, I see, but it takes two to tango, you know.
Whatever the exact meaning of this brief and strange exchange was, it was clear that Trump studiously avoided appearing to support Ukraine, while making positive sounds about Putin. There is no doubt that watching this exchange brought a smile to Putin's face.
What does all this mean for Ukraine? Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton, has no doubt that "if Trump wins, it's toast" for Ukraine. While Bolton, who was fired by Trump with a tweet in September 2019, may be a little bitter about the former president, there is no question that should Trump win, Ukraine would find itself in a much weaker position vis-à-vis Russia than it is today.
This is also understood by President Biden, who has just authorized another delivery of military aid to Kyiv to the value of $8 billion and seems determined to complete the delivery of the entire $60 billion package, as approved by Congress, before the end of his term. The rush is motivated by uncertainty as to the further continuation of the aid if Trump is elected. The former president's performance at Trump Tower is just the latest indication that Ukraine can expect a discontinuation of the aid should Trump be re-elected.
By all indications, Trump would also be pushing Ukraine toward a dishonorable peace, which would mean major territorial losses, including strategic seaports in the south of the country. This would deprive Ukraine of revenue essential to its economy and make its reconstruction close to impossible. A Ukraine forced to give up on its goal of joining Western structures, probably not just NATO but also the EU, would in fact fall into the Russian sphere of influence.
This is not to say that it would be impossible for Ukraine to continue its current path and preserve its sovereignty and independence without American support. Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has demonstrated incredible resilience and determination to defend itself. There is no indication that this spirit is breaking. Some of the support provided by the U.S.fst could be filled in the future by the Europeans, who have started to rearm in the last two years. However, realistically, the job of preserving Ukrainian sovereignty and its pro-Western choice would be severely complicated if Trump wins in November.
