Ukrainian forces entered Russia’s Kursk region on August 6 and have been fighting there ever since, posing the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin since last summer’s ‘march on Moscow’ by mutinous Wagner Group mercenaries.
While Kyiv has remained secretive about the operation’s progress, some Russian war bloggers have suggested that Ukraine could now control around 250 square kilometers of the Kursk region.
Quoted by the Washington Post, pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov has warned that it could now take a year before Russian troops are able to dislodge Ukrainian forces: “If they act at the same speed as Russia is attacking elsewhere,” he said, “it could take a year to take back the Kursk region.”
While Russia enjoys a distinct aerial advantage over Ukraine, recent Russian military operations in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions have demonstrated just how challenging it is to seize fortified areas.
This point is key. With Russia still apparently struggling to formulate a coherent response, some – including Markov – have posited that the attack is a bold land grab aimed at gaining a foothold in Russia.
“Russian troops are racing against time to launch a counterattack before the Ukrainian brigades take up positions,” said Markov. "The advantage belongs to the defenders; I think the plan [of the Ukrainians] is to occupy as much territory as possible. While Russia is gathering its reserves, they will build fortifications.”
The attack has left Russia stunned and questions are now being asked as to how Ukraine was able to launch such an offensive. Andrey Gurulyov, a member of parliament and the former deputy commander of Russia’s southern military district, has slammed the inert military response and called for an investigation.
Markov, too, has cited a failure of communication between intelligence and military command. “This is a blow because it is clear that the signal came from intelligence to the leadership, but… measures were not taken,” he said. “This is a failure of the entire system of intelligence, and since Putin is responsible for this, then it’s clear this is a blow to Putin.”
Although Kyiv’s objectives remain unclear, suspicions are growing that Ukraine hopes that any seizure of Russian land can later be used as a bargaining chip in the event of peace negotiations.
Markov, though, is adamant that Putin will not bow under pressure: “The audacious seizure of territory by Ukrainian troops is unlikely to encourage Putin to compromise,” he cautioned.
News of the attack has sent Ukrainian morale soaring while also reminding Western allies of Ukraine’s resolve and tactical capabilities. According to Russian military bloggers –- who have proved to be among the most accurate sources of information since the operation – Ukraine has occupied over 20 border villages and at least part of the small city of Sudzha.
Footage has also surfaced of obliterated Russian columns and of civilians fleeing as panic grows. In another blow for the Kremlin, Friday also saw a military airfield in Lipetsk, around 220 miles from the border, apparently wiped out following a large-scale drone attack.
