On Tuesday, Russian officials reported that around 1,000 Ukrainian troops, supported by tanks, armored vehicles, drones, and heavy artillery, breached the Russian border in the western region of Kursk.
The incursion marked one of the deepest penetrations by Ukrainian forces into Russian territory since the start of the conflict in 2022.
According to Alina Polyakova, CEO and President of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), while Ukrainian officials have chosen to remain tight-lipped about the operation and most information appears to be coming from Russian sources, there are still a few things that can be established with certainty, as they have been cross-verified by various Western media outlets.
Among the certainties, Polyakova said “active fighting” continued to rage inside Russia “because of this incursion by Ukrainian forces.”
Polyakova also noted that Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is quite unprecedented as while the country has conducted special operations raids previously, this time, according to available information, Kyiv had used regular troops.
“These are regular Ukrainian troops, not special operations forces, which are usually a small group of individuals,” she said.
She also mentioned that, based on what we know, “there are at least three hundred Ukrainian soldiers who have been part of this operation,” which, according to Polyakova, reflects Kyiv’s willingness to force Russia to respond to Ukrainian operations, rather than the other way around, as has been the case throughout most of this war.
Kyiv’s qualitative edge
While Polyakova admitted that details about Kyiv’s larger ambitions regarding the operation remained scant, she said that the operation had demonstrated that, while the Russians may have a quantitative edge over Ukraine, the latter has a qualitative edge over Moscow.
“I think what the Ukrainians are showing now with these incursions that are increasing in number is that they still have the qualitative edge and are able to use it quite effectively,” she said.
She added that Ukraine has been able to retain this qualitative edge not only because of the support it has received from the U.S. and other Western nations but also because of its own dedication to keep “the Russians increasingly on their toes and try to change the trajectory of the war from constantly being on the back foot to now forcing the Russians to be on the defensive.”
Continuing, Polyakova said that the current situation demonstrated that U.S. policy to back Ukraine against the Russian invasion had been successful.
She added that unlike the assessments made by Washington and other Western nations at the outset of the war, which predicted that Kyiv might fall within 48 to 72 hours, Ukraine had been able to combat Russian aggression for nearly two and a half years now.
Polyakova said that one of the reasons that Kyiv had continued to resist was down to foreign backing: “U.S. support [to Ukraine] really makes a difference,” she said.
Lastly, she emphasized that if the next U.S. administration, whether led by the Democrat Kamala Harris or the Republican Donald Trump, wished to see a stronger and more prosperous Europe, it too must continue to support Ukraine.
