They will decide on whether or not to give Maia Sandu a second term in office as the Moldovan president, and they will vote in a referendum on EU membership.
Although separate, the two ballots, when entwined, offer competing visions about the future of the tiny country of around 3 million people, which has been beset by a series of formidable challenges ranging from poverty to break-away republics since it gained independence in 1992.
In crude terms, the vision is about whether the future lies in Moscow’s sphere of influence, with good economic and political ties with Russia, or whether it lies within the pro-Western camp and EU membership.
Sandu embodies the latter vision. Staunchly pro-EU, she became president in 2020, and a year later her Action and Solidarity Party stormed to victory in parliamentary elections, securing more than 50% of the vote and putting Moldova on clear EU-bound trajectory.
Sandu has also condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova’s neighbor, and has even claimed that Moscow is trying to unseat her.
The president is odds-on favorite to secure a second term. A poll by CBS-AXA published on October 7 gave Sandu 36.1%, putting her well ahead of her nearest rival, Alexander Stoianoglo from the Socialist Party, who has 10.1%.
Although she has clear water between herself and the chasing pack, it is almost certain Sandu will be unable to secure a majority on October 20 and therefore will enter a run-off vote on November 3.
None of her opponents have recently really expressed explicit pro-Russian sentiment but some, it seems, are closer to Russia than others. One, Irina Vlah, according to a paper published by the Carnegie Endowment Organization, has accused Sandu of dragging Moldova into the Russia-Ukraine war.
If elected, Vlah has promised to be a president of “peace” and hold a referendum on the country’s neutrality.
But with Sandu expected to get a second term, a lot of observers are waiting to see just by how much she will win. A weak showing in the polls could make it harder for her Action and Solidarity Party to secure a win good enough to keep its aspiration of joining the EU by 2030 on track.
Referendum time
Sandu launched the referendum process in December 2023, and, if passed, the vote will enshrine EU membership as a strategic goal in the Moldovan constitution. This should settle, once and for all, Moldova’s geo-political direction. The country has since independence been in an East-West tug of war, which has led to political instability, let corruption fester and hamstrung its economy.
At the moment, it appears she has made the right call. The CBS-AXA poll found that 63.2% of Moldovans support their country’s EU integration while 32.4% oppose it, but despite these figures there are reasons for caution in the Sandu camp.
The result, to be approved, needs a turnout of at least 33%, and there is also the question of an alleged Russian hybrid war targeting Moldova.
This month, the head of the Moldovan police claimed that Moscow has channeled $15 million through a network belonging to Ilan Shor, an exiled and pro-Russian businessman. Allegedly, the money was supposed to have been used to bribe 130,000 Moldovans to vote “no” in the referendum.
This figure is dwarfed by the estimated $100 million Russia has spent on interfering in Moldova’s democracy this year, according to Stanislav Secieru, the country’s national security advisor.
The fact that Moscow has deemed it essential, it appears, to invest so much money in mucking around with Moldova is that the country, according to the Kremlin, is another chip off the old Soviet bloc that should remain in its sphere of influence, much like Ukraine.
Therefore, Moscow views with Moldova’s Western aspirations with hostility.
Along with spending billions of roubles, the Kremlin can also use the unresolved issue of Transnistria to undermine Moldova. A sliver of land in eastern Moldova, the area declared unilateral independence in 1992 owing to fears its Russian-speaking population would be suppressed by Moldova’s Romanian speaking majority.
A brief conflict that same year ended with the entrance of Russian troops in a peacekeeping capacity. Moscow’s soldiers are still there, and their continued presence, along with the issue of Transnistria, has hindered and complicated Moldova’s EU aspirations.
