Despite this, however, his current government has never been as fragile as it is now.
The possibility of early elections in Slovakia was first publicly acknowledged by Fico himself during a speech at Smer party’s ceremonial congress on November 17 last year. “Let’s be realists and prepare ourselves for parliamentary elections outside the end of the regular term in 2027,” declared the Smer leader.
Since then, his warning has become increasingly realistic. Even some members of the ruling coalition openly admit the possibility of early elections. The year 2025 is seen as decisive, with the first major test coming during the first parliamentary session in February.
The ruling coalition currently has just 76 MPs, giving it a majority of only one in Slovakia’s 150-seat parliament. This wafer-thin advantage is the result of three rebellious MPs leaving the parliamentary group of the smallest coalition partner, SNS. Later, another three MPs, this time from the Hlas party, defected, leaving the coalition uncertain about whether it will still have a majority come next month’s parliamentary session.
According to public opinion polls, half of Slovaks expect Fico’s government to fall. Michal Šimečka, the leader of the opposition party, Progressive Slovakia, predicts that due to the government’s troubles and the coalition’s disintegration, early elections could take place in Slovakia this year or next. His party, which has been consistently leading Smer in the opinion polls for several months, is projected to emerge as the winner.
It’s not over till it’s over
The fall of Fico's government is not yet certain. Many coalition MPs in parliament may be rebellious, but their dissent is more of an attempt to leverage their position for personal benefits, such as securing ministerial posts or support for their proposals, rather than a genuine desire to change Slovakia's political direction. It is unlikely that they would vote for the government’s premature end, which would require the support of at least 90 MPs in parliament.
The SNS (Slovak National Party), one of the elements of the current coalition government, also has a strong desire to stay in power. The instability of its parliamentary group and its radical policies pushed in areas of culture, sports, and environmental protection are the root causes of most of the current coalition’s problems. However, SNS leader Andrej Danko is acutely aware that the party has dropped below 4% in polls, with its nationalist-leaning voters shifting to the far-right Republika party.
If there were early elections, SNS might fail to return to parliament, and it was the thought of this, perhaps, that prompted Danko to make a significant concession by agreeing to support Hlas's candidate for the post of parliamentary speaker. This position has been vacant for six months due to personal animosities between SNS and Hlas. Such a gesture is likely to enhance coalition cooperation and reduce the likelihood of the government’s collapse.
A Romanian scenario in Slovakia?
Fico's unexpected and highly unconventional visit to Moscow just before Christmas could also be interpreted as preparation for an early election campaign. He held a private meeting with Vladimir Putin, and it remains unclear when the secretive trip was arranged or how Fico traveled to Moscow.
Fico did not inform coalition partners or President Pellegrini about such a significant visit. Upon his return, he announced on social media that the discussions with Putin focused on gas supplies. However, days later, the Russian president revealed a different agenda: a proposal for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to be hosted in Slovakia.
The confusing Moscow trip, which further tarnished Slovakia's reputation among its Western allies, offers another interpretation; Fico may be laying the groundwork for an election campaign in which Russia could play a role. This mirrors the recent Romanian scenario, where the constitutional court annulled the first round of presidential elections due to Russian interference.
Though this may sound speculative, Fico himself hinted that this might happen during his New Year’s speech. He criticized developments in Romania and Georgia, framing them as examples of election results being disregarded when the “wrong” candidate won. His comments seemed to foreshadow a similar narrative for Slovakia.
“What we see today in Romania or Georgia, where election results are disrespected if the wrong winner emerges, is becoming a common method for eliminating inconvenient political parties,” declared the prime minister.
Russia has previously interfered in Slovakia’s electoral campaigns, most notably in 2023. Just days before voting, the Russian foreign intelligence service issued a statement questioning the fairness of the country’s elections, alleging U.S. interference.
The Slovak Foreign Ministry immediately refuted these baseless claims and summoned the Russian ambassador in order to hand him a formal protest. However, the current foreign minister, Juraj Blanár, is unlikely to take such a firm stance. In just one year in office, Blanár has already met Sergei Lavrov three times, signaling a notable shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy direction.
The year of truth
Slovakia faces a pivotal year that will determine its political direction. Starting in January, the full effects of strict fiscal consolidation will be felt, likely driving up inflation and potentially eroding support for the ruling parties. By autumn at the latest, parliament will have to vote on a confidence motion for Fico's government, as the public debt has exceeded the constitutional limit set by the debt brake law. These will be critical risk factors for the survival of the governing coalition.
However, even early elections may not guarantee political change. A potential victory for Šimečka’s pro-European Progressive Slovakia party would not automatically mean it could form a stable government due to lack of coalition partners.
A new parliament would likely include the far-right Republika party and Aliancia, a party representing Slovakia’s Hungarian minority which aligns itself with the policies of Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, and these parties could become viable coalition partners for Smer. If joined by the Christian Democrats (KDH) and Hlas, a strong coalition with the potential to get a constitutional majority could emerge, paving the way for a transformation of Slovakia modeled on Orbán’s Hungary. But for now, Fico's government remains fragile, and all scenarios for Slovakia's future are still on the table.
