The Polish president, though holding a largely symbolic role, has the power to veto legislation. The incumbent head of state, conservative Andrzej Duda, is a political foe of the pro-EU government elected in late 2023.
Critics claim that for years Duda’s role largely consisted of signing into law controversial legislation put forward by the former right-wing government, in violation of the constitution. That prompted detractors to label the president a “długopis” (ballpoint pen). Others called him a mere notary – leading to a protest by notaries.
Now, with a more liberal-minded administration in power, Duda, his critics claim, is doing the opposite: instead of rubber-stamping legislation, he’s acting as a brake. Until his term expires, the ruling coalition has no chance of fully pushing through the changes it says are essential for restoring democratic standards eroded under its hardline conservative predecessors.
If a conservative right-winger becomes head of state in a vote expected next May, the government can expect continued resistance from the presidential palace in Warsaw.
The bitter divisions of recent years in Polish society, with dinner-table arguments over politics erupting in family homes, could widen.
Fortunately for centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk, this scenario may never materialize, with a moderate fancied to replace Duda.
Poland’s main parties haven’t yet officially declared who their presidential candidates will be, though speculation is rife. Here’s a guide to the potential contenders, and how well they’re likely to fare…
Rafał Trzaskowski
Polls show that Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw since 2018, is the favorite to take over as head of state. Liberal, telegenic and still fairly fresh-looking at 52, he’s popular with younger, pro-European and progressive voters.
He was narrowly beaten by Duda in the last presidential elections four years ago, though Trzaskowski’s supporters say he didn’t have a level playing field. He was targeted by a wave of hostile coverage beamed out by state media which, according to many, was a propaganda machine for the then-ruling hard-right, populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Nevertheless, Trzaskowski performed well, drawing 10 million votes and building up his political capital to the extent that some speculated he might split from the center-right Civic Platform (PO) party and form his own political grouping.
That hasn’t happened and Trzaskowski has stayed with the PO, which is now in power, as one of its most recognizable faces.
If he becomes president, he will be an ally of efforts to strengthen LGBT rights, a stance that will infuriate traditionalists. On June 15, Trzaskowski took the stage at an Equality Parade in downtown Warsaw, telling a crowd brandishing rainbow flags that the Polish capital is a “smiling, tolerant and European city.”
He may well end up nudging the country as a whole in the same direction. A poll for the Super Express newspaper earlier this month found that Trzaskowski would win the presidential race, backed by 62% of voters, easily outpacing conservative former Law and Justice (PiS) Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, on 38%, in a runoff second round.
The PiS candidate
Unlike the governing coalition, the arch-conservative PiS, the main opposition party, has no obvious candidate for president.
Earlier this month, the money was on Mateusz Morawiecki. A wealthy ex-banker, Morawiecki headed the PiS-led government that was ejected in October parliamentary elections.
However, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński said on Saturday that the party needed to find a contender “who will be very well received by society, who will meet society’s expectations and who, at the same time, has nothing in [their] past that can be attacked, even unfairly.”
That would appear to rule out Morawiecki. A bespectacled figure with a mild-mannered-accountant appearance, Morawiecki was appointed premier in 2017. Some saw that as a move to soften the face of PiS on the international arena at a time when the party was coming in for growing criticism over its shrill nationalistic tone amid accusations of democratic backsliding.
If PiS is looking for a presidential candidate unencumbered by the past, a string of party heavy hitters will be ruled out, including former prime minister Beata Szydło, ex-defense minister Mariusz Błaszczak, and probably also former parliamentary speaker Elżbieta Witek.
Instead, PiS would have to plump for a relatively unknown candidate – someone like 36-year-old Tobiasz Bocheński, a lawyer by education who ran for Warsaw mayor earlier this year. He lost to Trzaskowski but took almost a quarter of the vote in a city traditionally difficult for PiS.
Some have speculated that Bocheński could be the “new Andrzej Duda”: the young PiS-backed candidate who seemingly came out of nowhere to win the presidential election in 2015, then five years later secured a second term, the maximum allowed by the constitution.
Szymon Hołownia
Hołownia, whose Poland 2050 party is a junior member of the governing coalition, became a YouTube sensation after he was appointed speaker of parliament following last October’s general election.
A newcomer to the lower house, the Sejm, he quickly got to grips with a swathe of complex procedural rules, winning fans with his adroit, sarcastic but calm handling of often-vitriolic debate. Viewing figures for televised parliamentary proceedings – dubbed “Sejmflix” – suddenly spiked, though detractors accused Hołownia of grandstanding.
His ability to come over well in public is perhaps no surprise, seeing as Hołownia once hosted the Poland’s Got Talent! TV show.
However, his star has dimmed somewhat after a poor showing in European elections earlier this month. The center-right Third Way grouping (of which Hołownia’s Poland 2050 is a part) scored under 7% of the vote, less than half its result in the October Polish parliamentary ballot.
Hołownia, a Catholic who at 47 still has a schoolboyish demeanor, offers a form of conservatism independent of, and more moderate, than that of PiS, a stance that could prove attractive to many voters.
Though the Super Express poll indicates he would beat PiS’s Morawiecki in a presidential race, Hołownia would lose if pitted against Trzaskowski, taking 37% of the vote to the Warsaw mayor’s 63%.
Apart from Hołownia’s Poland 2050, there are two other junior members of the broad coalition government: the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which traditionally enjoys support in rural areas, and the New Left. It is not known yet if these will field their own candidates for president, or unite behind a big gun like Trzaskowski.
Donald Tusk
A center-right pro-European, Prime Minister Tusk is the head of the Civic Platform (PO), the main party in Poland’s ruling coalition.
At 67, he’s a political veteran, and could be eyeing the presidency as the dignified crowning of a career that stretches back to the late 1980s.
Tusk has a previous spell as premier under his belt, having held the post from 2007 until 2014, when he resigned to lead the European Council – becoming the first Pole to hold such a high-profile international post.
Ardent supporters see him as something of a knight in shining armor. Tusk, they say, returned to Poland in its hour of need, inspired a groundswell of public support ahead of last October’s parliamentary elections, and freed his country from the right-wing authoritarianism of PiS that was choking democracy.
Tusk, however, has legions of opponents who detest him with a passion. If he runs for president, these will likely head to the ballot box in droves, determined to stop him from becoming head of state.
Critics blame Tusk for much of what they say went wrong in Poland after the collapse of communism in 1989, including social inequality and a drift away from the nation’s Catholic traditions and morality. Right-wingers with a bent for conspiracy theories accuse Tusk of being a German stooge who promotes Berlin’s interests in the EU while selling out his own country.
A poll for the Super Express newspaper earlier this month found that 48% of supporters of Tusk’s own grouping believed he shouldn’t run for president, while 37% thought he should. Some analysts have argued this is a sign of trust in Tusk rather than the opposite – his fans want him to keep leading the country as prime minister.
The far-right contender
The far-right Confederation grouping, which wants a much tougher stance on illegal immigration, is set to field one of its joint leaders, Sławomir Mentzen or Krzysztof Bosak, who will slug it out in a preliminary intra-party vote to elicit a presidential contender.
Neither has much chance of being elected head of state, though the performance of the Confederation nominee will be closely watched. Amid a surge by the far-right across the continent, the Confederation finished third, with 12% of the vote, in Poland’s recent European Parliament elections, up from 7% in the October parliamentary vote.
