The study, published on Monday, showed that 52-year-old Rafał Trzaskowski, who is supported by the governing, centrist Civic Coalition (KO), would secure 40.4% of the vote in the first round.
His main rival, historian Karol Nawrocki – endorsed by the nationalist-populist Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party – would end up in second place, garnering 24.5% of the vote.
Sławomir Mentzen, co-head of the far-right Confederation grouping, would claim third place with 10.7%, the poll found.
Szymon Hołownia, the speaker of the lower house of parliament and leader of the centrist Poland 2050 party, a junior partner in the coalition government, would secure fourth place with 9.2% of the vote.
Meanwhile, 5.5% of respondents said they have not yet decided who to vote for, according to the poll conducted by United Surveys for Polish private news website Wirtualna Polska.
Run-off prospects bright for Trzaskowski
The survey also showed that should Trzaskowski and Nawrocki face off in a potential second-round runoff, the mayor of Warsaw is expected to triumph with 55.9% of the vote, leaving Nawrocki with 33.7%.
Poland is set to choose its next president in May, as Andrzej Duda, the PiS-allied incumbent, is barred by the constitution from seeking re-election after two five-year terms.
The campaign race is officially due to start on January 8.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trzaskowski lost narrowly to Duda following a tightly-contested race which analysts said was skewed against the Warsaw mayor due to complete control of the public media by PiS, which was in power at the time.
