The daily intelligence update assessed that Russia will almost certainly continue to see maintaining influence in these countries as a foreign policy priority and a key issue for domestic security and economic prosperity.

It noted that the resources Russia has committed to the war in Ukraine and the lack of a military breakthrough cast doubt on Russia’s position as a regional security guarantor, and its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty has raised the prospect that Russia itself will become a security threat to these countries. In turn, Russia’s economic decline and the risk of secondary sanctions have intensified concerns over economic dependence on Russia.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 28 February 2024.

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— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 28, 2024

“In response to these trends, states across the former Soviet Union have intensified efforts to diversify their economies, political and security relationships to reduce dependence on Russia. While Russia maintains a significant presence, both overt and covert, in the region, the Kremlin’s ability to achieve its aims and objectives has almost certainly declined significantly over the past two years,” the British Defense Ministry assessed.