Russia first deployed its S-400 systems in Syria in 2015, following the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 tactical bomber jet by Turkish forces. The anti-aircraft defenses were set up in the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, eastern Syria, providing coverage of the entire country. In 2018, the air defenses of the bases where Russian troops were stationed were boosted with S-300 systems.
Following the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, which was allied to Moscow, Russia cannot be certain it will be able to maintain its continued presence in the Middle Eastern country. Russia’s bases in Syria, including a naval base in the port of Tartus, is in turn crucial for maintaining Russian involvement in propping up military juntas in Subsaharan West Africa, in countries like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, ostensibly with the intent of combatting local Islamist militias.
It seems that the most obvious alternative to Syria is Libya, where Russia has maintained a presence since 2019, when it provided assistance to general Khalifa Haftar, whose forces control the eastern part of the divided country. In 2020, Haftar attempted to capture the capital city of Tripoli, from where the Government of National Accord (now the Government of National Unity) administered the western part of Libya. Russia supported Haftar by sending in mercenaries from the Wagner Group.
Although the attempt to capture Tripoli failed, Russia held on to its strategic interests in Libya, and its forces are currently stationed in the Al Jufra air base and the port of Benghazi. Moscow is also lobbying to set up a naval base in Tobruk.
The assistance Haftar enjoys from Russia, which previously maintained cordial relations with the regime of the country’s deposed dictator Muammar Gadaffi, has met with opposition from Turkey, which in turn supports the Tripoli-based administration. In 2020, Ankara deployed a contingent of its Syrian proxies to western Libya, who continue to operate in the country and have Turkish-manufactured Baryaktar TB2 drones at their disposal.
But Turkey and the Benghazi administration have been working toward a rapprochement. In October this year, Haftar’s chief of land forces met with the Turkish defense minister in Istanbul, two days after Turkey’s ambassador to Tripoli paid a visit to Benghazi.
Western governments have criticized both Russia and Turkey for interfering in Libya, accusing them of destabilizing the country by deploying forces and proxies.
Many analysts, however, have said that Moscow’s and Ankara’s presence in the North African country has in fact led to establishing a balance of power, crucial for freezing the conflict. Yet, Russia redeploying its men and materiel from Syria to Turkey might upset this balance.
