Russia is seeking to hinder Moldova’s accession to the European Union and to lay the groundwork for potential future hybrid or conventional operations against the country, according to the ISW.
Evgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, has suggested that Romanian officials exert control over the Moldovan government.
The ISW stated that this represents the latest in a series of
Kremlin efforts to challenge the sovereignty of European pro-Western governments.
During an interview on Russia’s state-run Pervyi Kanal (Channel One) TV channel on April 8th,
Gutsul implied that Moldova is not a sovereign state by alleging that Bucharest, Romania, “controls” the Moldovan authorities.
She warned that if Gagauzia were to initiate secession from Moldova, the Moldovan government in Chișinău and Bucharest would react, insinuating Moldova’s lack of sovereignty.
Gutsul argued that Moldovan authorities might respond to Gagauzia’s secession with “loud, threatening statements” or by deploying troops into the region. Furthermore, she contended that Moldova’s unification with Romania would spell the “death” of Moldova, its language, and its culture.
On April 5, Gutsul stated that Gagauzia would “immediately” commence the secession process from Moldova if Moldova were to unite with Romania.
Military analysts believe that Gutsul’s interview on Russian state television on Tuesday was likely intended to lay the groundwork for potential Russian aggression against Moldova, particularly targeting Russian-speaking and pro-Russian audiences in Gagauzia, Transnistria (the pro-Russian breakaway republic), other pro-Russian regions of Europe and Central Asia, and within Russia itself.
The Kremlin perceives its activities in Moldova as part of a broader existential geopolitical conflict with the West. Recently, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its officials have hinted that Western countries are influencing the national security policies of the Armenian government and have suggested that Finland “lost its independence in making foreign policy decisions” after joining NATO.
Previously, the Kremlin has made similar unfounded claims to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and justify its invasion of Ukraine, asserting that NATO controls Ukraine and utilizes it to threaten Russia.
The ISW suggested that it is likely that the Kremlin will continue to challenge the sovereignty of various target states in order to set the stage for Russian hybrid or conventional operations against them.
