The 12-day lightning rebel offensive reignited a civil war that had been stagnated for a few years but whose roots date back to 2011, when a popular uprising against Assad first broke out following his brutal suppression of dissent.
The insurgency culminated on December 8 with the rebels capturing Damascus, the Syrian capital, almost unopposed, facing minimal resistance from regime forces.
Moscow was a strong ally of Assad, and when the civil war first broke out 13 years ago, the authoritarian leader relied heavily on Russian air prowess and Iranian support via its regional proxy Hezbollah to retain control of major cities.
However, when the rebels, spearheaded by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched their latest assault, neither Tehran nor Moscow could come to the Syrian leader’s aid as both were preoccupied with their own conflicts, with Russia tied up in Ukraine and Hezbollah battling Israel in Lebanon.
Assad, who fled Syria following his ouster, has since been granted asylum in Russia.
Images show Russia’s withdrawal
On Friday, Maxar Technologies released satellite images showing what appeared to be at least two Antonov AN-124s, one of the world’s largest cargo planes, with their nose cones open at Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria’s coastal Latakia province.
“Two An-124 heavy transport aircraft are at the airfield—both with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load equipment/cargo,” Maxar said.
“Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter is being dismantled and likely prepared for transport while elements of an S-400 air defence unit are similarly preparing to depart from its previous deployment site at the air base.”
Russia’s naval base at Tartous, Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, “remains largely unchanged since our December 10 imagery coverage with two frigates continuing to be observed offshore of Tartous,” Maxar said.
Britain’s Channel 4 news reported that it had seen a convoy of more than 150 Russian military vehicles moving along a road, adding that it appeared there had been a deal struck to allow the Russians to exit Syria in an orderly fashion.
Strategic blow for Russia
Losing its bases at Hmeimim and at Tartus could pose a serious strategic problem for Russia as the two had been used as logistics hubs by Moscow to carry out its activities across the Middle East and Africa.
Analysts from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the collapse of Assad’s regime is a “strategic political defeat” that has “thrown the Kremlin into a crisis.”
On Thursday, Russia’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, said that Moscow is engaged in “constructive” talks with the rebel group HTS and aims to maintain its military presence in the region.
