Having been earlier tipped to make a political breakthrough in Germany’s local elections this year, the projected leap forward has failed to materialize following a string of controversies.

In January, nationwide protests were sparked after it was revealed that party officials had met with extreme nationalists. Later, the AfD again courted scandal after senior politicians were linked to China and Russia. Then, last week, Maximilian Krah, the AfD's top candidate in the elections, was expelled after telling a newspaper that the Waffen SS were “not all criminals”.

Speaking to Reuters, Christine Reh, a professor of European Politics at the Hertie School, said: "The AfD has lost around 8% of support since the beginning of the year. I think Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron are part of that, but I think it's also the perceived proximity to China via Maximilian Krah and Russia via Petr Bystron that has played a role."

According to Reh, these recent scandals have hit the AfD hard: “I do think it has mattered for the campaign because, essentially, the first two candidates on the list of the AfD are not supposed to campaign, they are not supposed to be seen. And the AfD leadership has told them to essentially stay clear of the campaign. I think that’s had an impact on the election campaign."

AfD’s European candidate, Rene Aust, has remained defiant: “Let me put it this way, there will now be a two-week break in the relationship (with Europe’s right) and after the European elections, we will all sit down together again and talk about further cooperation. And of course it will then also be up to us to build trust. And we will succeed in doing so."

Reh has cautioned, however, that it is unlikely that Europe’s more extreme right will be able to find one coherent voice: “We don't know what will happen with the more right-wing political parties after June 2024. It could be that they all join in one big right-wing group. I think this is unlikely though because I think some of these parties are not compatible, especially in their view of Russia versus Washington.”

Continuing, she added: “That could be one possibility. Another could be a bigger European Conservative and Reformist group. That's the party where, for example, Giorgia Meloni sits. And a more far-right group where the AfD could find colleagues, so to speak, such as the FPO [Freedom Party of Austria] for example or Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party."

Young voters could prove key, says Reh. "I think in general, the anti-establishment, and the anti-immigration combination of the AfD appeals to some young voters, especially young male voters.”

Whether these voters turn out next month could be decisive, she argued: "I don't think that Germany is becoming anti-European as a country. I think Germany knows that part of its strength lies in the European Union. But I think a big question is what will the young voters, should they go and actually vote, do on the 9th of June, 2024.”