In an interview, Eoin McNamara, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, discussed the implications of the debate for NATO, Poland and the war in Ukraine.

“He [Trump] actually had a very strong foreign and security policy team to begin with (...) but this turned around very, very quickly (...) At the end, of course, there were rumors that he was willing to withdraw the United States from NATO,” McNamara said.

“So, Trump really is very, very much a wild card in that regard. We can expect a lot more consistency in NATO's support for the eastern flank of the alliance and indeed military aid for Ukraine under a Kamala Harris presidency.

“But as we've seen as well, that will also depend on the composure of the U.S. Congress. That's the military aid dimension for Ukraine.”

McNamara was asked about how that could impact the situation on Poland’s border. “If we see a United States that is less committed to NATO, that, of course, encourages Putin that that is a signal of weakness. And Putin might want to test the limit with hybrid aggression and with probing etc,” he said.

“We've seen this in Latvia in recent days where a Russian drone is reported to have crash-landed. So testing, probing, hybrid interference and ratcheting up of tensions might accompany any action that sees less U.S. commitment to NATO,” McNamara added.