“I am amongst many confused by this reshuffle,” Cichocki said, but added that “all we can say for sure is that this is not actually a surprise.”
The changes in the cabinet were already expected to take place in June. This was delayed, however, by the complicated procedure required to dismiss ministers.
But the key according to which some ministers were dismissed is unclear, as in the case, for example, of Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, also responsible for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, and Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, who serves as Minister for Temporary Occupied Territories.
As Cichocki pointed out, however, in some cases, the dismissed minsters may be given other, potentially more important, posts in the administration.
What took the former ambassador and many others by surprise is that Denys Shmyhal was retained as the prime minister.
Cichocki said: “I would say from my comfortable distance in Warsaw, this is the last thing Ukraine needs in a very delicate, very difficult situation, with Russia’s offensive toward Pokrovsk in the east and Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region.”
He added, however, that the resignation of Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba should not be a surprise, let alone cause for alarm.
“He [Kuleba] is set to become ambassador in one of the G7 countries. He asked for it,” said Poland’s former ambassador to Kyiv. “This change is not the result of criticism or President Zelenskyy’s disappointment.”
Cichocki added that Andrey Sibiga, currently a deputy foreign minister and an experienced diplomat, will likely replace Kuleba. He stressed that in the Ukrainian system, the president has a big influence on foreign policy.
Considering that, and who will replace Kyiv’s outgoing top diplomat, it is unlikely that there will be a massive shift in Ukraine’s foreign policy strategy.
Speaking about how the reshuffle, especially the change of foreign minister, will affect Polish-Ukrainian relations, Cichocki said that there are many factors, but that his overall outlook is positive.
For one, the likely replacement for Kuleba is a diplomat with long experience of working in Poland.
He said: “It’s good news for Poland and the Polish-Ukrainian relationship. Andrey Sibiga worked as a diplomat in Warsaw and for quite a long time, he speaks Polish. He knows Poland very well.”
When Sibiga was recalled to Kyiv, he advised Zelenskyy on Polish-Ukrainian relations. Cichocki also stressed that Vereshchuk, who is expected to receive an important post in the presidential administration, has co-chaired the Economic Cooperation Committee of Poland and Ukraine, which he sees as more good news for Poland.
Cichocki also pointed out that over the past year there have been some tensions between Kyiv and Warsaw, primarily over the issue of grain imports from Ukraine, which sparked protests by Polish farmers.
Then there was a recent statement by Kuleba referring to Poland's territories within its post-1945 borders that were inhabited by Ukrainians, as Ukrainian lands.
While the Ukrainian foreign ministry tried to downplay Kuleba’s words and said they
should not be interpreted as irredentism, the statement was met with criticism from both Poland’s ruling coalition and leaders of opposition parties.
“After some unfortunate statements recently, for example by Minister Kuleba, there was some sense of, I would even say frustration and hesitance on both sides by senior politicians to initiate something constructive,” Cichocki said, concluding: “We need recalibration [...] and I believe this reshuffle would be helpful.”
