During the course of the offensive, Ukraine successfully occupied more than 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory. In an apparent retaliation for this slight, Russia launched a relentless barrage of missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. According to Wojcik, however, interpreting the Russian aerial onslaught as revenge may be stretching the truth.
He said: “This cross-border attack by the Ukrainians and significant terrain seized would make Putin angry. But, you know, Putin is [...] ten feet tall in the war. He’s not. And he has a limited amount of assets, too.”
As the retired officer explains, such massive attacks need to be coordinated and require planning well ahead. As such the attacks that followed the Ukrainian offensive were likely planned before it took place, and are part of a strategy to terrorize civilians and destroy critical infrastructure ahead of winter.
So even though the Kursk region offensive is significant not only as a purely military endeavor but also due to a breakthrough Soviet victory in the area during World War II, and is indeed “a slap in the face of Putin,” the Russian leader, “just like in previous winters, wants to hurt the Ukrainian people as much as possible, and that’s why he's going to start attacking more and more the civilian infrastructure and try to bring Ukraine to its knees.”
One of the possible reasons for the Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory is the attempt to force the Russians to divert forces from the Donetsk region, where their forces have been grindingly progressing toward Pokrovsk, an import logistical hub for the Ukrainians. But once the Russians reach the outskirts of the city, it may turn for them into a second “Bakhmut, where the Russians literally took months. [...] That's probably going to be the same situation when they get to Pokrovsk,” although for the Ukrainians, the need to defend the city may then outweigh the value of holding territory inside Russia.
Wojcik continued that Putin’s failure to quickly overrun Ukraine has completely shattered his hopes to bring the country under his heel. Whatever advancement Russian forces may make, these are “limited” and happening at a slow pace, while the Ukrainians refuse to give up the fight.
“These are Pyrrhic victories,” he said, adding that even gaining control of the entire Donetsk Region in which Pokrovsk is located “is not going to defeat the Ukrainians.”
He further added that the Kursk offensive did result in Russia being forced to divert its forces from other fronts, and there is a possibility Kyiv will repeat the move elsewhere.
“So the Ukrainians have a lot up their sleeve. But it all depends on us and our willingness to help them,” he said.
Unfortunately, providing military assistance to Ukraine remains a problem. A lot of the promised hardware is yet to arrive. Furthermore,
the much-expected F-16s are yet to be used in their full capacity, since, as Wojcik pointed out, they “are just coming online” and must be integrated into Ukrainian air defenses. What could help would be ensuring Ukraine can strike against Russian air bases.
But Wojcik said: “We tied one their hand behind their back to fire across the border with long-range systems.
“The estimate is 200 to 250 targets within range right now of long-range ATACMS. And we haven’t given them permission [to use ATACMS],” he said, and added:
“So it's not just supply, I’m sorry. It’s both supply and permission.”
Wojcik said that the “decisive moment” will come when the White House clearly communicates: “We want Ukraine to win. We want you, Russia, to be defeated.”
Failure to clearly communicate this not only to Russia but also Ukraine and its Western allies has, in his estimate, resulted in the failure to re-establish “deterrence”.
What should follow, he said, would be more “new complex weapon systems” and the permission to use them, something that is long overdue.
He said: “We have to help Ukraine win, and we have to say it and then act like it.”
And although Wojcik admitted that the delay in communicating the decision may be caused by the upcoming elections in the U.S., he said that if Biden does not make the call, someone else will.
“I hope [...] whoever becomes president makes it clear for Putin to back off. We’re standing with Ukraine and we want Ukraine to win,” he said. “That’s the change. There has to be a change.”
The interview with Ray Wojcik originally aired on TVP World’s Ukraine This Week, on September 7.
