While this remains a sensitive issue for Ukrainians, a Western diplomat told the FT that ceding land to gain NATO membership may be the “only game in town” for Kyiv.
The newspaper emphasizes that neither Kyiv nor its supporters propose recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, as this would encourage the Kremlin to continue its aggression and seriously undermine the international legal order.
A tacit acceptance is anticipated that these lands should be reclaimed in the future through diplomatic means.
The FT said that while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his position last week in Washington in favor of expedited NATO membership, the U.S. remains hesitant to move beyond the alliance’s agreed stance that Ukraine’s “future is in NATO” and that it will be invited to join “when allies agree and conditions are met.”
The U.S. fears that offering defense guarantees under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty before the war ends could draw the U.S. and NATO directly into the conflict.
However, some of Ukraine’s allies argue that this need not be the case.
The FT cites comments from Jens Stoltenberg, who concluded his term as NATO Secretary General this week, who in an interview with the newspaper pointed out that American security guarantees for Japan do not include the Kuril Islands, four of which were occupied by the Soviet Union in 1945 and are claimed by Japan.
He also gave the example of Germany, which was admitted to NATO in 1955, even though it was divided into East and West, with only its western part covered by the alliance’s security guarantees.
“When there is a will, there are ways to find the solution. But you need a line which defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine has to control all the territory until that border,” Stoltenberg said.
Growing support for the model
The FT wrote that the West German model for Ukraine has been discussed in foreign policy circles for over 18 months, with arguments in favor of it presented by figures such as Dan Fried, former Deputy Secretary of State for Europe, Stoltenberg’s predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and Czech President Petr Pavel.
It added that perhaps the most compelling argument for the model has been made by American Cold War historian Mary Sarotte.
According to Sarotte, Ukraine should define a border that it can defend militarily, agree to permanently refrain from deploying troops or nuclear weapons on its territory unless threatened by attack, and renounce the use of force beyond that border, unless in self-defense.
She added that NATO membership on these terms would be presented to Moscow as a ‘fait accompli.’
Sarotte suggests that following the West German route “would be far preferable, for Ukraine and the alliance, than continuing to put off membership until Putin has given up his ambitions in Ukraine or until Russia has made a military breakthrough.
“This path would bring Ukraine closer to enduring security, freedom, and prosperity in the face of Russian isolation — in other words, towards victory.”
