Ageing populations have become a major political and economic issue globally as people live longer and have fewer children. Birth rates are falling across the globe with the rate in Poland among those declining faster than predicted. In other OECD countries the story is similar.
“The TFR fell to just 1.5 children per woman in 2022, on average across the OECD, well below the ‘replacement level’ of 2.1 children per woman,” the organization wrote in a recent report.
“While OECD countries are using a range of policy options to support families, the economic cost and long-term financial uncertainty of having children continue to significantly influence people’s decision to become parents,” Stefano Scarpetta, a director at OECD told Reuters.
The lowest fertility rates were measured in Korea, at 0.7, and Italy and Spain, each at 1.2 children per woman. The highest rates were recorded in Israel at 2.9, followed by Mexico and France, each with 1.8.
The report also found that within the major industrialized economies, the average age of women giving birth rose from 28.6 in 2000 to 30.9 in 2022.
Furthermore, Research from the University of Pennsylvania has shown that according to birth rates published in recent years by individual countries, actual births were 10-20 percent lower than the UN estimated.
What about Poland?
According to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), there is a higher-than-expected decline in births in Poland.
PIE pointed out that the difference between the UN’s projected and actual number of births in 2022 was about 14%, and in 2023 as many as 36% fewer children were born in Poland than predicted.
The level of 272,000 births recorded in Poland in 2023 was not predicted to come about until 2055. “It should be expected that this year’s update of the UN forecast will verify the original estimates,” the institute said.
Italy goes on the offensive
Italy has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, and it has been declining gradually for the past 15 years, arriving at a record low of 379,000 births in 2023.
In light of the birth rate issue, the right-wing administration of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, supported by the Vatican, launched an initiative in May to promote having babies.
Demographers think that promoting fertility rates is necessary to prevent Italy’s ageing population from causing the country’s economy to collapse.
