In August, Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, announced that Poland would “formally start efforts to organize the Olympic Games” for 2040 or 2044. He did not, however, specify the costs, such as the construction of stadiums, the Olympic Village, and the additional transport infrastructure required.
Research carried out by economists from Credit Agricole Bank Polska (CABP), published in the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, has revealed that hosting the games could cost Poland billions of euros.
“We estimate that the total cost of organizing the Olympic Games in Poland could amount to 25.7 to 30.3 billion zloty (€6.01 to €7.09 billion), depending on the chosen approach,” Jakub Borowski, chief economist at CABP, was quoted as saying in the paper. The calculations do not include the costs of improving transport infrastructure.
“We estimate that the cost of organizing the games in Poland would ultimately amount to approximately 0.7-0.8% of Polish GDP in 2024," the report added.
In Paris, which held the games in the summer, the cost was 0.3% of GDP.
According to CABP calculations, the most expensive approach would be an Olympics organized mainly in one place, such as Warsaw. The cheapest option would be a decentralized one, with the games spread across Poland.
The economists concluded that the most expensive element would be building the necessary permanent and temporary sports infrastructure. The figure could reach PLN 12.1 billion złoty (€ 2.83 billion) if it were based in Warsaw.
New Olympic stadium?
With 32 disciplines, a host nation would require an Olympic stadium, eight arenas, two Olympic swimming pools, a golf course, a hippodrome (for equestrian events), a marina (for sailing), a rowing course, two tennis courts, a shooting range, a velodrome (for cycling), plus multiple outdoor locations.
Some of the needs could be met by renovations and modernization of existing infrastructure but Warsaw’s National Stadium would be deemed too small to be an Olympic stadium owing to its 58,000-capacity falling short of the 80-100,000 required.
“From the point of view of costs and for many other reasons, the location of the Summer Olympics is very important,” CABP said.
Warsaw or nationwide?
The economists presented three potential approaches. The first would entail most competitions taking place in the capital city. The second proposal would see a four-way share, including Warsaw, Poznań, Łódź and the coastal Tri-City conurbation. The third would be a wider spread across the country including Kraków, the Silesian conurbation, Wrocław and Szczecin.
A broader dispersal of locations brings costs down owing to the optimization of existing facilities. This option would also lower the risk of not using the facilities after the Games.
Accommodation
Hotel facilities are another important consideration. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) requires 40,000 hotel rooms, a significant portion of which must provide high-standard facilities.
Additionally, there would be a significant number of spectators and tourists and neither Warsaw alone, nor any other large city in Poland, could accommodate such numbers.
“We estimate that the cost of organizing the games in Poland would ultimately amount to approximately 0.7-0.8% of Polish GDP in 2024," the report said.
In Paris, it was 0.3% of GDP, Tokyo - 0.7%, Rio de Janeiro - 0.6%, and London - 0.4%.
