Prices in Poland rose by 2.6% annually in June, and up slightly on May’s reading, Statistics Poland, the country’s central statistics office, announced in a flash estimate published on Friday, with food and fuel prices still rising.

The estimate shows food prices rising by 2.6% in comparison to June 2023, while fuel prices were up 1.1%. The prices of other types of fuel - natural gas, electricity, coal fell in June by 1.6 percentage points.

Looked at on a monthly basis, prices were up 0.1% in June.

Storm clouds

Inflation has fallen significantly from its peak in 2023 of 17.9% in October 2022, and last June prices were still rising at 11.5%.

Although the consumer price index is now within the target range of the National Bank of Poland, which is 2% plus or minus a percentage point, analysts see storm clouds ahead.

ING is predicting that Thursday’s announcements of the approval of 20% hikes in energy prices could “put another 1.5 percentage points on inflation.”

Meanwhile, Alior Bank’s economists see the price index “rising to the level of 4-5% in the second half of the year.”