Only 76 out of 577 seats in France’s lower house, the National Assembly, were claimed in the first round of the elections.
That is because only securing more than 50% of the vote that represents at least 25% of eligible voters in a given single-seat constituency guarantees a victory in the first round.
Any candidate that secured a number of votes that exceeds 12.5% of all registered voters in the constituency can advance to the second round, leading to a situation in which three and sometimes even four candidates can compete for a seat. In the second round, the victor is elected according to the first-past-the-post principle.
In an attempt to prevent the far-right, anti-immigrant, and Eurosceptic party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from winning the majority, the broad left-wing (New Popular Front, or NFP, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon) and centrist liberal (Together, led by President Macron’s Renaissance party) political alliances formed a “republican front” and began pulling their candidates from the race to consolidate the anti-RN vote.
According to Le Monde’s estimates based on public declarations, at least 218 candidates have withdrawn from the race by the 6 p.m. on Tuesday deadline, of which 131 ran on the left wing and 82 on the centrist ticket. The official numbers will be known on Wednesday.
These estimates would suggest that now 403 of the electoral races will be between two candidates, 95 between three candidates, and two between four candidates.
For comparison, three-way elections during the second round were held in only eight constituencies in the 2022 elections.
Pollsters initially predicted Le Pen’s party could ultimately win between 250 and 300 seats, with 289 needed for a majority, but this estimate did not factor in the subsequent withdrawals of candidates. Nevertheless, Le Pen told the French radio, that if her party manages to secure 270 seats, she hopes to be able to attract additional MPs to support the bid of Jordan Bardella, the formal leader of the party, for the post of prime minister.
Le Pen herself serves as the leader of the party in parliament.
Whether she will find the needed number of allies in the new Assembly may depend largely on the outcome of the more mainstream right-wing Republicans (LR) party.
Republicans, the kingmakers
The leader of LR, Éric Ciotti, called on the election night for the formation of a right-wing coalition, and in fact he had already made similar calls before the election in the first half of June, which led the party leadership to remove him from the post of the formation’s head, but he successfully contested his removal in court.
But there has been little response to Ciotti’s overtures from Le Pen or Bardella.
Republicans have little to lose, other than maybe the support of some voters who would feel uncomfortable with such an alliance. This appears not to be the case, however, as according to Politico’s poll of polls, the support for the party has increased, even if ever so slightly.
The party gained 6.67% of the vote in the first round, somewhat less compared to the 8% support Politico reported just before the elections, and it currently sees its support at slightly more (10%) and with an upward trend.
The Republicans may afford to make such overtures also because they may still be invited into the coalition with the left and center (President Macron himself
made a call for a “broad coalition” against the far-right on Sunday after the elections), one which may perhaps align less with their own views, but also one in which they would have more to say than in a coalition thoroughly dominated by the National Rally.
With little to lose and much to gain, this means the Republicans have little incentive to pull their candidates from the races. The National Rally has even fewer reasons to pull their candidates, although three of the far-right candidates have withdrawn, compared to two candidates from the mainstream right.
At least in one case, it is very clear why a candidate pulled out of, or rather was pulled from, the race.
Internet never forgets
An RN candidate who came in third in the 1st constituency of Calvados in Normandy with 19.95% of votes in the first round, Ludivine Daoudi, saw photos of her surfacing while wearing a Luftwaffe cap with a prominently displayed swastika.
The photo was published by Emma Fourreau of the left-wing NFP, who in that same constituency came in second with 34.82% of the votes, who posted it on X, commenting that:
“Ludivine Daoudi, the RN candidate for the 1st constituency of Calvados, has been missing since the start of the campaign. When you look at her social media, it's easy to understand why.”
Philippe Chapron, the leader of the local RN party branch told France Bleu Normandie radio on Tuesday that the decision to pull Daoudi from the races was made “at the level of the RN headquarters,” and that “the candidacy will be withdrawn as of today.”
“She doesn’t deny it, she took the photo several years ago at an arms [i.e. military surplus or paraphenalia] market” in Normandy, Chapron told the radio.
Fourreau’s post is not likely to boost her chances of winning in Calvados, however, as following the first round, Joël Bruneau, an unaffiliated right-wing candidate, was in the lead with 43.11% of the vote.
![“All unite against R[ally] hate.” Anti-far-right-wing demonstration in Toulouse, France, July 1, 2024. Photo: Alain Pitton/NurPhoto via Getty Images](http://s.tvp.pl/images/d/d/8/uid_dd81ce7c818a427c9a52c20ac0ed4051_width_700_play_0_pos_3_gs_0.jpg)
