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There's a saying about a man who swallows a frog, convincing himself that it's delicious. Viktor Orbán looked like that during his "unexpected" visit to Kyiv and conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Hungarian prime minister's spokesperson said that Orbán proposed two key topics for conversation: "European peace" and "development of bilateral relations".
Hungary's policy towards Ukraine really resembles a figurative "frog". The European reality, Europe's readiness to help Ukraine and to resist the imperial ambitions of Russia and China, has made Orbán swallow this "frog" and realize his own place in European world politics.
We have discussed the eleven points of Hungarian requirements for Ukraine in the process of European integration that were recently published. One international publication aptly called them "demands to recognize the 'Hungarianness' of Transcarpathia". The publication noted that despite the fact that Ukraine is suffering from Russian aggression and really needs support, Ukrainians will never agree to such an ultimatum.
Orbán looked strange when he spoke in Kyiv about the need for an "immediate truce with Russia," which he, however, "does not insist on."
Let's get back to the "11 requirements for Ukraine". Hungary had once "warned" Slovakia and Romania in a similar way when it came to their membership in NATO and the EU. At that time, Budapest, like now, issued ultimatums to Bratislava and Bucharest, demanding that the rights of the Hungarian minority be satisfied and that the "historical Hungarian character" of Transylvania (north-western Romania) and "Northern Hungary" (Slovakia) be enshrined in law.
The statements of Hungarian politicians were so harsh and the state of public emotions so hot that it would seem that only a spark was needed to set off the powder keg of armed conflict.
What is left of these statements and emotions today after Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia became members of the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance? Membership in the Euro-Atlantic structures has become the best medicine that has helped to resolve the most difficult historical problems, as well as the problems besetting the current political order.
We have every chance that the same will happen with Hungary's "demands" of Ukraine. After all, Budapest raised similar issues during the negotiations on our country's visa-free regime with the EU in 2017, when we received candidate status in 2022, and at the beginning of negotiations on our EU membership this year. But after certain "steps toward us" by our government, Orbán withdrew his opposition.
Perhaps the key was Chancellor Olaf Scholz's formula in relations with Hungary, when during the vote for financial aid to Ukraine, he advised Orbán "Viktor, go out for coffee."
Our government should study Hungary’s proposals, express its own position and firmly defend Ukrainian national interests. I am confident that a compromise will be reached. After all, Hungary is playing with openly marked cards as was the case with Romania, Slovakia, and Croatia.
We are talking about Budapest's territorial revisionism. Influential forces in Hungary are trying to "revise” the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, under which Hungary, as part of the defeated Austro-Hungarian Empire, lost a lot of territory. Hungary had already "revised" these results in 1939-1945, when it became an ally of the Third Reich. But after the end of World War II, it was forced to return to the "Trianon borders.
We remember Orbán's statement in 2014 about "Hungarian autonomy" in Transcarpathia Ukraine. It was made at a time when the Russian hordes invaded Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We also remember Hungary's openly pro-Russian policy after February 24, 2022. Budapest insisted that Ukraine's defeat was "inevitable" and on the need to make "peace with Russia," which, in the Kremlin's interpretation, means Ukraine's surrender and the destruction of our state and nation.
In short, if you want to understand Moscow's true goals, listen to the statements of Orbán and his subordinates. And conclude that Moscow has given Hungary the green light to satisfy Hungarian revisionism. But everything has its limits, especially in relations with Russia.
At the end of April 2023, Pope Francis came to Budapest for the second time in his pontificate. It looked strange, as the Roman pontiff rarely visits the same country twice in a row. The purpose of this visit was most likely to meet the Orthodox Metropolitan of Budapest and All Hungary, Hilarion Alfeyev. Until June 2022, he headed the Department for External Church Relations of the Moscow Patriarchate and was second in command to Patriarch Kirill.
Experts assessed Hilarion's removal from office and appointment to Budapest as a disgrace and demotion. But in fact, he was transferred to a particularly important city for Moscow. Budapest, the capital of Russia's staunch ally, has become a new center of special operations in Europe and a platform for continuing "special relations" with the Vatican.
Francis's Hungarian visit took place at a time when the Holy See was promoting its "peace plan", an element of which was the release of 11 Trancarpathian Ukrainian prisoners of war. They ended up in Hungary, where it was claimed that the Ukrainian military were Hungarian by origin. Most of those who returned to Ukraine denied this. Instead, Moscow commented that, together with the Vatican, they had released representatives of the "Carpathian population."
For Russia, they were not Hungarians, but representatives of the "great Russian people." This demonstrates the Kremlin's true goals for Ukrainian Transcarpathia: it is not its return to its "Hungarian mother," because it has only one mother, a Russian one.
Over the past two years, we have seen the true place Hungary has been assigned by the Kremlin in the "struggle for peace on Russian terms." It is not a subject of politics or even that of a mediator.
Its place is that of a repeater of the messages Moscow needs; a "Trojan horse" in the EU and NATO, and a convenient platform for playing Putin's more complex games.
Now for the bad news for Orbán personally. A politician, whose plans to play an independent role in European and even global politics have failed, came to Kyiv for talks. He failed to create a "third Europe" that would maneuver between the EU and Russia. His importance to China was severely shaken when the EU imposed duties on Chinese electric cars and other products. He is a "friend" of Donald Trump, but Trump has yet to win the US presidential election. And it is not yet certain that the likely Republican administration will withdraw America from NATO and dismantle the EU.
After the recent European Parliament elections, Orbán failed to create a powerful international grouping that would have radically changed the balance of power in the EU. Thanks to the good result of the European People's Party and the continued strength of the Social Democrats, the balance of power has not changed. Ursula von der Leyen will continue to lead the European Commission, although Orbán voted against her at the European Council. He was the only leader of an EU member state to do so.
This became a symbol of Viktor Orbán's defeat and demonstrated his lack of real influence on European politics.
To conclude, let me say something positive. It's good that Viktor Orbán came to Kyiv, and it's good that it happened at the beginning of Hungary's EU presidency. This shows the almost complete consensus that has developed in the European Union in assessing Russian aggression against our country. The EU is determined to continue supporting Ukraine. This visit is a sign that today the attitude towards Ukraine is equal to Ukraine’s attitude to the European Union, its present and future.
This is a tribute to the unity of the Ukrainian people, their resilience, and the cohesion of the government and society. And above all, the heroism of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, without which the analysis of political scenarios would not be worth the egg.
Viktor Orbán realized that ignoring Ukraine would show him to be too much of an outspoken ally of the Kremlin and would result in the final nullification of Hungary's position in the EU and NATO. Realizing these facts gives a chance to open a new page in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations. Compared to the global challenges of war and peace that Ukraine faces, this may seem like an unambitious goal. However, in the current situation of our bilateral relations, the negotiation and signing of an interstate agreement is a necessary and realistic goal.
We must remember that the Hungarian leader will not become a friend of Ukraine, just as he will not mediate in negotiations for peace in Ukraine. He simply has to become a predictable and reliable neighbor of our country.
