Recent statistics reveal a stark reality: by the close of the first quarter of 2024, over 1.1 million foreign workers were contributing to the Polish Social Security system, marking an increase of nearly 65,000 compared to the previous year. Notably, vacancies, especially in less desirable sectors, are increasingly being filled by foreign nationals, with Ukrainians leading the charge, numbering over 762,000 by March’s end, a significant surge from the previous year.

ZUS (Social Insurance Institution) data shows that after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, their share among Ukrainian workers in Poland decreased from 63% to 52%.

However, a series of factors now threaten this demographic dominance. The ramifications of a new mobilization law enacted by Ukrainian authorities, compelling military registration for men of draft age (18–60 years), cast a shadow over their continued legal employment in Poland. With a staggering 93% of Ukrainian male workers falling within the draft age range, this legislation could have profound implications.

Some of them have already felt the effects of the blockade of Ukrainian consulate services for men of draft age introduced on Tuesday, which is most likely intended to facilitate effective military registration.

Those who do not register (providing current contact details) can no longer count on the extension of passport validity, driving licenses, or even pick up documents they applied for before the new regulations came into force.

The repercussions of these developments extend beyond administrative inconvenience. Rafał Mróz, operational director of the EWL Group employment agency, warns of potential disruptions to the Polish labor market.